Julian Marx (Flossbach von Storch) | Strength lies in calm, and this applies to monetary policy as well. As a rule, the European Central Bank (ECB) avoids generating unnecessary suspense before potential changes in interest rates. This occasion was no different: Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel virtually previewed the rate decision when speaking to the French newspaper Le Monde in early September: “Inflation is currently very far from our medium-term target […]. According to the June forecasts, it will only return to 2% in the medium term under the assumption of higher interest rates. Consequently, markets are pricing in a higher than 95% probability that we will raise rates at our September meeting.
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