Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces have successfully contested the initiative at both the strategic and operational levels starting in late 2025 and persisting throughout 2026 for the first time since the August 2024 Kursk Offensive. Ukrainian forces have held Russian forces to near-zero net gains since March 2026, and have conducted successful counterattacks in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and now Lyman directions.[1] Ukrainian counterattacks defeated Russian efforts to push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, regained lost ground in and around Kupyansk and have defeated subsequent Russian efforts to regain it, and now have destroyed a significant Russian salient that threatened the northern flank of Slovyansk and the entire Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt.