The 10-year Treasury is closing in on 5%. How it gets there matters more

The 10-year Treasury yield is once again closing in on the psychologically important 5% threshold. For investors, the biggest issue may be what drives it across the line. The benchmark yield is hovering around 4.96%, within striking distance of the 5% mark it last touched in October 2023. A climb fueled by resilient economic growth would carry very different implications for stocks and the broader economy than one driven by resurgent inflation, mounting fiscal concerns or stress within the Treasury market itself.