Before President Donald Trump reels off angry Truth Social posts if the Federal Reserve hikes rates this week, he should look in the mirror: His policies are a big reason the central bank has to consider a rate increase. In March, one month after the beginning of the Iran war, with oil near $100 a barrel, the average Fed official was still forecasting a rate cut this year and another one next year. It was a sign of the Fed's continued willingness to "look through" policies of the Trump administration that resulted in higher prices and to treat them as "one-offs." Six months later, the Fed stands on the verge of what markets expect to be the first rate hike since 2023. And futures markets predict this is will not be a "one-off" increase.
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