Warsh's credibility is on the line this week as Trump policies put pressure on Fed to hike

Before President Donald Trump reels off angry Truth Social posts if the Federal Reserve hikes rates this week, he should look in the mirror: His policies are a big reason the central bank has to consider a rate increase. In March, one month after the beginning of the Iran war, with oil near $100 a barrel, the average Fed official was still forecasting a rate cut this year and another one next year. It was a sign of the Fed's continued willingness to "look through" policies of the Trump administration that resulted in higher prices and to treat them as "one-offs." Six months later, the Fed stands on the verge of what markets expect to be the first rate hike since 2023. And futures markets predict this is will not be a "one-off" increase.