Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets

Oil prices and Treasury yields are moving in lockstep, compounding the pressure on markets as investors grapple with another inflation shock. The one-month rolling correlation between front-month West Texas Intermediate crude and the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 0.96, according to BMO Capital Markets. That's the strongest positive relationship since June 2019, and before that October 2014. The synchronized moves come as oil prices have surged due to the conflict in the Middle East, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% Monday for the first time since October 2023.