GENEVA, Switzerland — Failure to reform the World Trade Organization could shrink the global economy by about 10% by 2050, a new report from the international body said Tuesday. The alert comes as the WTO struggles to reform itself in a period of heightened global pressure in geopolitics and industrial policy, plus U.S. tariffs. The WTO’s annual trade report compares three alternative futures for trade cooperation: enhanced cooperation, geopolitical fragmentation, and a world where the WTO is replaced by a network of bilateral and regional free trade deals. Under enhanced cooperation, global GDP would be 2.9% higher by 2050, while exports would increase by roughly 18%. Under geopolitical fragmentation, GDP would drop by 5.
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