Adjusting for volatility in Irish data, growth is expected at 1.2 per cent in 2026 and 2027, rising to 1.4 per cent in 2028, based on an estimate of euro area GDP using modified domestic demand instead of GDP for Ireland. The ECB projected that real GDP growth had surprised on the upside in the second quarter of 2026, while short-term indicators point to robust growth in the near term as uncertainty recedes, confidence improves and the energy supply shock from the Middle East conflict is assumed to ease gradually. Compared with the June 2026 projections, GDP growth has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points for 2026, or 0.3 percentage points when adjusting for volatility in Irish data. The 2027 forecast has been revised up by 0.
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