The European Central Bank ( ECB ) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage pressures with smoothed one-off payments of 2.2% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 46.9% of employees in participating countries). The headline wage tracker indicator stands at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 (based on a coverage of 32.5%) and 2.8% in the second quarter of 2027 (based on a coverage of 25.1%). The lower wage tracker in the first half of 2026 reflects the downward mechanical impact of one-off payments that were initially paid in the second half of 2024 and not repeated in the following year. These effects dissipate fully in the second half of 2026.
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