The European Central Bank (ECB) said on the 16th that growth in wages determined through labor negotiations is expected to remain broadly flat through the end of this year before accelerating modestly in the first half of 2027. According to an analysis based on the latest wage tracker data, growth in negotiated wages as measured by the key indicator will hold at 2.6% to 2.7% through the end of the first quarter of 2027, before rising to 2.8%. The ECB has been closely watching wage developments to assess whether the sharp inflation of recent years is translating into excessive pay demands. It has consistently said, however, that wage growth of around 3% is consistent with its 2% inflation target.
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