The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent. It was the first increase since 2023, and it did not come from the usual place — overheating wages, demand running ahead of supply, a labor market too tight to cool. It came from a war. Iran’s campaign in the Strait of Hormuz has shut down one of the most critical energy chokepoints on earth. Vessel traffic through the Strait — which normally moves more than a hundred ships a day — has collapsed to fewer than a dozen. Saudi Arabia’s alternative pipeline route remains offline after attacks in recent weeks. Brent crude is trading above $108 a barrel.
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