Will the ECB Really Need to Take Rates Above 3%? - The Dark Side Of The Boom

Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn expects the ECB to raise the deposit rate again in December to 2.75%, supported by resilient growth, renewed energy pressure, and a potentially higher neutral rate. But Goldman is more cautious than the market about what comes next, arguing that softer underlying inflation, some slowing in growth and tighter financial conditions raise the hurdle for a faster sequence of hikes. Goldman expects one more ECB hike in December , taking the deposit rate to 2.75% . Euro area growth has been more resilient than expected, while renewed energy pressure has lifted Goldman’s forecast for headline inflation to a 3.8% year-on-year peak in Q4 . Underlying inflation remains more contained.