Eurozone: Energy shock reshapes outlook – Rabobank - tmgm.com

Rabobank strategists Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot highlight that sharply higher Oil and natural gas forecasts will lift headline Eurozone inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 2027. They now see inflation peaking around 4.4% year-on-year in early 2027, with core inflation only modestly higher, and expect sluggish disinflation to keep the ECB deposit rate near 2.50% until at least 2028. "These revisions have a significant impact on our inflation forecasts. Based on these higher prices for oil products and natural gas, our inflation models predict 0.5 percentage point stronger headline inflation across this year and next." "We now expect inflation to peak at 4.