Pricing is running ahead of the message. Markets see a high probability of a quarter-point move next month, yet Stournaras is openly talking about the option to wait, which leaves front-end euro rates vulnerable if incoming data softens. Oil is the swing factor, so crude and gas headlines linked to the Iran war are effectively rate headlines for the euro area and can shift ECB expectations, and the euro with them. The Fed's recent decision is being read by Stournaras as supportive of global policy credibility, which suggests he is not looking to see the ECB fall far out of step with other major central banks.
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