To justify hiking rates, Kevin Warsh and the Fed painted a rosy picture of the labor market. Interestingly, Warsh did so by citing record low jobless claims. To wit: Unemployment claims, on a four-week moving average, are running at levels consistent with full employment. So, the labor side of the Fed’s congressional remit is in good shape. Jobless claims are near historic lows, as shown below, and the news is even better as a percentage of the consistently growing labor force. However, treating them as proof the labor market is healthy is misleading. Jobless claims only measure layoffs. They say nothing about hiring. While jobless claims may signal that few people are being fired, they don’t tell you whether people are being hired.
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