What a Limited Russian Incursion Into Estonia Might Look Like: A Narva Scenario - Institute for the Study of War

The dramatic visit of US Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow in August 2026 brought much-needed attention to the increasing danger that Russian President Vladimir Putin could conduct a limited attack on a NATO state in the relatively near term and even while continuing to fight in Ukraine.[1] The reaction of most Baltic States to Ratcliffe’s trip and the resulting discussion and events has been largely to call for calm regarding a Russian invasion and a measured approach to other Russian threats.[2] Estonia and Latvia both reiterated that they have observed no evidence of the buildup of Russian forces near their borders that would be necessary for a full-scale invasion of their countries.