Lane's comments point to a two-stage inflation path: a near-term increase from a second wave of energy price rises, followed by a decline toward target only from the middle of 2027. That timeline, if it holds, suggests the ECB may need to look through elevated inflation for longer before any dovish shift, which could support the euro if it reinforces expectations of a steady policy stance. The conditional framing, growth holding up "provided" the energy shock does not intensify, keeps the outlook tied closely to how oil and gas prices behave from here, leaving room for a shift in tone if the shock worsens.
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