Markets are following a similar pattern as before, which means euro rates don't follow oil back down as quickly as they followed on the way up. This limits the downside potential we see for euro swap rates in the near term. Slowing growth could push back against hawkish pricing, but in our baseline we see eurozone economic resilience Oil prices have eased from the recent highs, but the short end of the euro curve sticks to a relatively hawkish outlook. The last time oil hovered around $100, the 2Y swap rate was some 20bp lower. This is a familiar pattern, whereby up and down movements in oil have an asymmetric impact on rates.
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