The euro area PMI comfortably beat expectations in September, pointing to continued resilience in the face of higher energy prices. Manufacturing sentiment remains firm and there was a marked improvement in the services sector. The survey reinforces the view that the euro area economy is coping well with geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy costs. More importantly for the ECB, the PMI showed some signs that energy-driven price pressures may be broadening into the domestic economy. The services output price gauge increased to the highest level since early 2024. All told, today’s release bolsters the hawkish case for further tightening and is consistent with our view that the deposit rate will be lifted from the current 2.50% to 3.00%.
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