Prepared by Tilman Bletzinger, Giulia Martorana and Jakub Mistak Published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 6/2026 . Shifts in market expectations for the stance of US monetary policy can influence global financial conditions, including through spillovers to the euro area. Market expectations for US policy interest rates were revised significantly in both directions over the summer, amid heightened geopolitical risks and an uncertain economic outlook. As risks and uncertainty persist, policy rate paths for both the United States and other advanced economies remain subject to further reassessments.
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