The rapid rise in PMI, Treasury yields, and expectations of further Fed monetary tightening have strengthened the case for EUR/USD bears. At the same time, Europe continues to face significant political and energy-related challenges. Let's examine the situation and develop a trading plan. The stronger the economy, the higher the interest rates it can withstand. Against this backdrop, the surge in US PMI to its highest level since 2021, combined with increasingly hawkish rhetoric from FOMC officials, has raised the probability of the Fed continuing its monetary tightening cycle in October to 70%. This has also triggered the fastest rise in Treasury bond yields since April 2025.
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