The U.S. labor market is likely to remain resilient enough to support further Federal Reserve rate hikes, with BNP Paribas forecasting a 90K increase in September nonfarm payrolls and a 4.0% unemployment rate. The forecast would put September job growth well above BNP Paribas' estimated negative 20K breakeven rate for the second half of 2026. The bank said economic momentum should keep the jobless rate moving lower into early 2027. BNP Paribas expected private-sector employment to rise by 90K in September, with government payrolls unchanged. It forecasts continued momentum in construction and manufacturing, particularly in nonresidential construction tied to the data-center buildout, while expecting a more typical 10K gain in leisure and hospitality.
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