Next week will be busy. We expect consumer spending to rise 0.8% in August, while income growth of 0.5% and annual BEA revisions should show a resilient U.S. economy. The PCE deflator is expected to firm in August, although broader revisions should leave the recent inflation trend somewhat softer. On Friday, we expect payroll growth to moderate to 90K in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Abroad, Canada’s July GDP is expected to be essentially flat, consistent with an economy that is slowing but not contracting. We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its Cash Rate by 25 bps to 4.60%, which we view as the terminal rate.
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