No European army is fighting in the Gulf. No European navy is running the blockade. Yet Europe’s households, airlines and factories are paying for the Iran war every day. The US and Iran are still far apart on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the LNG shipments that pass through it remain blocked. With Iranian strikes on tankers keeping markets on edge, the question for Europe is no longer whether it pays. It is how the bill travels, and who ends up holding it. The answer is less obvious than it looks. Europe’s real weakness is not crude oil. It is the refineries it chose to close. Start with the basic exposure. The eurozone imported 57% of its energy needs in 2024, so a Gulf crisis never stays in the Gulf. Gas shows it first.
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