Can cash infrastructure mitigate the adverse effects of a card payment system outage? As cashless payment systems become increasingly prevalent, societies are becoming more vulnerable to technical disruptions such as card payment system outages. This paper investigates a one-day nationwide card payment system outage at a major retailer in Switzerland. To quantify the loss in card sales at the retailer's stores and the increase in cash withdrawals at ATMs, we generate granular counterfactuals by forecasting card payments and cash withdrawals at the store and ATM level.
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