The U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report is set for release on Friday, and around this critical data point, prediction markets and Wall Street banks are showing a rare divergence. Kalshi and Polymarket traders see roughly a 50% probability that U.S. September job gains topped the 100,000 mark, while the Dow Jones economist consensus is just 84,000, and the Reuters survey stands at 90,000. The optimistic bets in prediction markets contrast sharply with the generally cautious forecasts from investment banks, making this jobs report a key variable that could break the current stalemate in Fed rate-hike pricing.
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