Despite macroeconomic pressures and a cautious consumer , retail sales this holiday season are expected to grow year-over-year as spending remains strong. According to Bain & Company's annual forecast , holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion for the first time, marking a 4.5% growth. That growth is largely projected to be from in-store sales at 70%, though e-commerce is continuing to gain share. The holiday spending is supported by higher tax refunds , which are up $43 billion this year, or 17% year over year, adding more cash to consumers' wallets. Even still, the report noted that Bank of America estimates half of that benefit has already gone to higher gas prices , which have significantly squeezed budgets.
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