How does Iraq’s security change after US forces withdraw?

United States forces have departed their remaining bases in Iraq as the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIL (ISIS) expires, opening a new chapter in Iraqi security. Baghdad is marking the occasion with four “Sovereignty Days”, a national holiday from September 30 to October 3 that underscores the deep symbolism of the US exit. However, the withdrawal raises questions about what comes next. Wednesday’s deadline brought an end to a two-year phased withdrawal process of US troops from Iraq. A joint Iraq-US statement issued in September 2024 announced that the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIL would wind down in two stages. The first would be the end of combat operations inside Iraq by the end of September 2025 at the latest.