Veytics Intelligence
2026-10-02 · Understandingwar

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War

Russian milbloggers are expressing concerns that Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction will hinder Russian attempts to assault Slovyansk from the east – suggesting that Operation Vivaldi not only disrupted Russia’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt from the Lyman and Dobropillya directions but may also hinder Russian plans to assault the northern Fortress Belt cities frontally. A Russian milblogger claimed on September 23 that Ukrainian forces were regularly counterattacking from Ozerne (southeast of Lyman and north of the Siverskyi Donets River) toward Kryva Luka (south of Ozerne and the river), suggesting that Ukrainian forces were crossing or had already crossed the river.

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