Headline payroll growth disappointed again in September, with the economy adding just 29,000 jobs, well below expectations for a 90,000 gain. We also got downward revisions: August was revised from +162,000 to +133,000, and July from +21,000 to -10,000. Put together, employment in July and August was 60,000 lower than previously reported, and the 3-month average of job growth is down to 51,000 (from 71,000 last month). But this is not abnormal. Headline payrolls are volatile right now because labor supply is low, especially with immigration having slowed sharply. Breakeven employment, which is the number of jobs the economy needs to create to keep up with population growth, is only around 25,000 a month.
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