Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate at the October meeting. According to the report , the market assigns a 16% chance to a 25 basis point increase and a 1% chance to a hike larger than 25-basis-points. Trading volume on the contract stands at $7,233,598. The pricing follows the September employment report released earlier this month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, compared with the consensus forecast of 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The increase in the unemployment rate was attributed largely to an expansion in the labor force. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to its lowest annual rate since May 2021.
We show the main point publicly. Create a free account to continue reading the full article, save it, discuss it, and connect it with market and OSINT context.