Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate at the October meeting. According to the report , the market assigns a 16% chance to a 25 basis point increase and a 1% chance to a hike larger than 25-basis-points. Trading volume on the contract stands at $7,233,598. The pricing follows the September employment report released earlier this month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, compared with the consensus forecast of 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The increase in the unemployment rate was attributed largely to an expansion in the labor force. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to its lowest annual rate since May 2021.
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