In the countdown to the Federal Reserve’s meeting this month, the September employment report would normally be the biggest one policy makers would see before they meet to see if the labor market side of the Fed’s dual mandate is strong enough to withstand another rate hike should policymakers think one is needed this year to fight above-target inflation. Enter Yelena Shuyletyeva, senior U.S. economist at the Conference Board and the current Preident of the New York Association of Business Economics. What does she make of a meager, weaker-than-expected gain of 29,000 jobs in September, alongside downward payrolls revisions in previous months? A tick up in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2%?
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