Philip R. Lane: Diagnostic Challenges for ECB Monetary Policy

It is a pleasure to welcome you to the 2026 edition of the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice. In this speech, I lay out some diagnostic challenges in determining the appropriate ECB monetary policy. [ 1 ] Our interest rate decisions are based on three criteria: (i) our assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data; (ii) the dynamics of underlying inflation; and (iii) the strength of monetary policy transmission. Taking these criteria in turn, the medium-term component of the inflation outlook plays a central role in setting the appropriate monetary policy.