Brazilians will decide in just under three weeks whether to re-elect incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or oust him with Flávio Bolsonaro — the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro — as both advanced to a run-off after receiving the most votes in the first round vote on Sunday. But the results of the first round are recalibrating how investors are pricing what the final decision will be. Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi now give Bolsonaro a more than 80% chance of winning the presidency. Before Sunday's first round results came in, he had about a 60% chance to win. On Polymarket , Bolsonaro's odds are now 85%, jumping from 63% before the first round count.
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