Why Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed the polls in Brazil’s election

With three weeks to go until Brazil’s presidential runoff, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva finds himself in a weaker position than he — or most pollsters — had expected. A second round of voting was widely predicted. But most recent polls had Lula entering a runoff from first place, putting him about three percentage points ahead of rival Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Instead, Bolsonaro took about 47 percent of the vote on Sunday to Lula’s 45 percent, a reversal that surprised analysts and raised questions about what happened in the final days of the campaign, and what the polls may have missed.