The cyclical impulse from a trillion dollars in cumulative AI capex and trillions more in government spending has been evident in the global activity pickup . Led by strong industrial and manufacturing activity, Q3 GDP growth is tracking 3.4% in the US, 0.8% in the Euro area, and 4% in China. We expect modest acceleration in 2027 as energy headwinds fade and consumer spending adds to robust corporate investment. Core is close to target in most countries but still notably higher in the US, where goods inflation remains elevated due to boosts from tariffs and tech-flation while services have largely normalized.
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