EUR weakness has been driven by higher US yields and rising fiscal and political risks in the euro area, particularly in France. French bond market stress has intensified fragmentation concerns, with wider France-Germany yield spreads adding to EUR downside pressure. High foreign ownership of French government debt increases the risk of capital outflows and may be amplifying the bond sell-off. Our base case remains a "muddle-through" scenario, but further spread widening, reduced ECB tightening expectations, or building TPI speculation could push EUR/USD lower. The EUR has come under increased selling pressure over the past month, resulting in EUR/USD breaking below the 1.1400-1.1800 trading range that had been in place since the middle of last year.
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