Geopolitical Shocks and Inflation: The Magnitude of the Crisis Determines the Price Path - https://economy.ac/

In March 2026, in just one month, the gasoline price index in the United States rose by 21.2% and the overall energy index by 10.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Six months later, annual US inflation stands at 3.4%, while Eurostat's first estimate for September puts the eurozone at 3.8%, with energy 18.8% more expensive than a year ago. The explanation that circulates almost automatically is that the war with Iran, like the Russian invasion of Ukraine before it, produces inflation and in this way geopolitical shocks and inflation are treated in the public debate as two sides of the same movement. Recent central bank research does not support this connection unconditionally.