Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September, the second consecutive monthly decline amid two glaring risks: the trade war with the United States and sustained high oil prices because of the Iran war. The Bank of Canada is likely to hold its policy rate at 2.25 per cent in October given September’s weak jobs report and core inflation remaining near target. But a 25 basis-point rate hike could come as early as December rather than in January if oil prices stay elevated and inflation broadens beyond energy. A 6.5 per cent unemployment rate in and of itself is not alarming and is relatively low by historical standards. The labour market was strong earlier this year, and two weak months do not erase the gains over the past year.
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