Ukrainian forces have derailed Russia’s plan to encircle and occupy the remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory of the Donetsk region this year, the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded in an assessment based primarily on open-source intelligence. The Russian campaign centred on a deep pincer movement targeting what the report calls the “fortress belt” — a defensive and logistical network protecting the Ukrainian-held portion of the Donbas — advancing from Lyman in the north and Dobropillia in the south-west, with both arms intended to link up near Barvinkove in the Kharkiv region.
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