EUR/USD is hovering near its 17-month low of 1.1161 after dropping more than 7% from its yearly peak, with market focus shifting from broad Eurozone growth to stress in French sovereign debt. France’s 10-year yield moved towards 5.00% on 2 October, a level last seen in 2002, while the spread over German debt exceeded 150 basis points, echoing 2011-2012 crisis-era pricing. France has still been able to fund itself: a €12 billion auction drew demand of more than twice the amount offered. Yet pricing has worsened to the point where France is facing higher borrowing costs than Italy and Greece, and Italian-German spreads have neared 130 basis points, posting their biggest weekly rise since the COVID-19 crisis.
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