1.1150 had stopped EUR/USD's fall four times since October 5, and it gave way on hotter US inflation figures, with the pair dropping to just above 1.1100, its lowest since May 2025. EUR/USD went through the level in the first five-minute bar after the release, made its low later in the session and is back at the old floor, having recovered about half of the drop. Core US consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% in September against a 0.2% forecast, with the headline rate at 3.7% for the year. Traders' odds on an October 28 Fed hike rose from about 20% before the release to about 50% after it, and have slipped since as Treasury yields fell back. The European Central Bank (ECB) pays banks 2.
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