The conflict in the Middle East continues to drag on, although the global economy remains resilient. In the euro area, business climate surveys indicate a dynamic third quarter, although actual activity data dampen this optimism, particularly in Germany. Meanwhile, in the United States, inflation remains under upward pressure due to rising energy costs, while the labour market remains highly volatile. The war involving Iran, the US and Israel has been ongoing for nearly seven months and is currently in a tense phase. The military stalemate on the ground coincides with challenging diplomatic negotiations, as demonstrated during the UN General Assembly held in late September, while Trump intensifies his rhetoric demanding a swift and definitive deal.
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