The euro and short-dated Bunds are most sensitive to any steer from Nagel on December. A clear endorsement of a further hike would firm rate support for the single currency. Any nod to French fiscal strain as a reason for caution would point the other way. Oil remains the key driver of the ECB debate: Nagel has called it one of the indicators the Governing Council must now watch, so a sustained easing in crude and gas prices would weaken the case for more tightening. Klingbeil’s comments on German spending matter for Bund supply and longer-dated yields. Nagel is in Bangkok as one of the ECB’s firmer voices on tightening, but questions on French debt could test how far he is willing to push.
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