Tesla-SpaceX merger timeline draws sharper focus after Roadster debut

[Arrow formed by two merging red and blue lines crossed 3D] djmilic Prediction market traders have lifted the odds of a Tesla (TSLA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TSLA])-SpaceX (SPCX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPCX]) merger, with Kalshi contracts now pricing a greater-than-even chance of a deal by spring 2027 following the electric-vehicle maker’s Roadster showcase. The market assigns a 15% probability of a merger before December 1, 2026, rising to 26% before January 1, 2027, 34% before February 1, and 39% before March 1. Probabilities then move above 50%, reaching 57% before April 1, 59% before May 1, and 77% before 2028. The shift comes after Tesla unveiled its next-generation Roadster at a SpaceX facility in McGregor, Texas.