The global economy has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of high uncertainty. The conflict in the Middle East continues to expose energy markets to sharp swings. Trade tensions and protectionist measures are weighing on confidence and contributing to a reconfiguration of trade flows. The global economy has held up thanks in part to the rise of artificial intelligence, with investment in technology supporting activity and trade, particularly in economies integrated into technology value chains. Risks nonetheless remain tilted to the downside for growth and to the upside for inflation. A return to an international economic order grounded in openness, predictability and the rule of law would help trade and investment flourish.
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