The Bank of Japan’s October 2026 decision depends partly on how much policy adjustment happens before October. An unchanged rate could follow earlier increases or reflect a weaker case for tightening. Those paths imply different economic conditions despite producing the same October outcome. The supplied Polymarket record identifies an open market but provides no outcome prices or resolution rules, so it cannot establish which path currently leads. The analysis below sets out conditional explanations, not a reconstruction of unavailable odds. The central sequencing assumption is that evidence favoring higher rates must produce an increase specifically in October. That connection can break if the BOJ responds at an earlier decision.
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