France's next political contest will also be a test of fiscal credibility. On 6 Oct, Marine Le Pen presented a programme promising €140 billion in spending cuts by 2032, net of at least €30 billion in tax cuts, according to Reuters. For a politician identified with national sovereignty, the message was revealing: political ambition now requires financial reassurance. France has not defaulted. Its predicament is more gradual, but consequential. Successive governments have accumulated obligations that increasingly constrain their successors. The question is whether its political system can agree on an adjustment that investors will finance and citizens will accept. The European Commission's May 2026 assessment put France's public debt at 115.
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