Oil Prices are Jumping and Markets Don't Care. That's Not Good. Stocks managed only a tentative bounce after last week’s selloff, and even that faded somewhat into the close. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rebounded from familiar levels, but both have traced a series of lower highs and lower lows in the past two weeks, hinting that a major equity market top may be forming. Meanwhile, Treasury bonds have rallied since the start of October, pushing yields lower even as crude oil prices surged. That turns the war trade on its head. Since the US-Iran war began in late February, markets have treated the conflict as an oil supply shock: pricier energy meant higher inflation, higher interest rates, a stronger US dollar, and weaker gold.
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